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气候因素对济南市5岁以下儿童手足口病发病短期效应研究
作者:杨韵青 耿兴义 刘晓雪 王蔚茹 张济

摘要:

目的  探讨济南市手足口病的发病情况与气候因素的关系。方法  收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2012–2014年济南市本地报告的5岁以下儿童手足口病资料,以及同期济南市的气象资料(包括气温、气压、相对湿度、降雨量、日照时、风速)。采用负二项分布模型对气象因素和手足口病发病资料进行单因素和多因素分析。结果  2012–2014年,济南市共报告5岁以下儿童手足口病40 405例,发病高峰出现在5–7月份,其间累计报告病例22 254例,占全年发病例数的55.08%。控制了"年"因素后,周平均气温每上升1 ℃,手足口病周发病例数上升6.70%(95%CI:6.35%~7.06%);周平均气压每上升1 kPa,手足口病周发病数下降44.77%(95%CI:-46.23%~-41.91%);周平均相对湿度每上升1%,手足口病周发病数上升1.96%(95%CI:1.84%~2.09%);周平均风速每上升1 m/s,手足口病周发病数上升16.63%(95%CI:14.08%~19.25%);周累计日照时每增加1 h,手足口病周发病数下降0.82%(95%CI:-0.93%~-0.72%)。结论  济南市气温、气压、相对湿度、日照时、风速等气象因素对手足口病发病有显著影响。

关键词:手足口病;气象学概念;相关分析

Abstract:

Objective  To investigate the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jinan.Methods  HFMD confirmed cases aged ≤5 years old for the period of 2012-2014 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS). Simultaneous meteorological data, including daily average temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, rainfall and duration of sunshine were obtained from the website of Jinan meteorological bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD.Results  During the study period, a total of 40 405 HFMD cases aged ≤5 years old were reported. The incident peak occurred from May to July, a total of 22 254 cases were reported during this period, which accounted for 55.08% of whole cases. After adjusting by "year" , each 1 ℃ rise of weekly average temperature corresponded to an increase of 6.70% (95%CI:6.35% to 7.06%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 kPa rise of weekly average atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 44.77% (95%CI:-46.23% to -41.91%). Likewise, a one percent rise in weekly average relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.96% (95%CI: 1.84% to 2.09%), a 1 m/h rise in weekly average wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 16.63% (95% CI:14.08% to 19.25%), a hour add in weekly duration of sunshine corresponded to a decrease of 0.82% (95% CI :-0.93% to -0.72%), in the weekly number of HFMD cases.Conclusion  Weather factors including temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, wind velocity, and duration of sunshine had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD in Jinan city.

Key words: Hand foot and mouth disease;Meteorological concepts;Correlation analysis

发表日期:2015/12

引用本文:

图/表:

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.F001:图1 济南市2012–2014年5岁以下手足口病报告病例数月分布图

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.F001:图1 济南市2012–2014年5岁以下手足口病报告病例数月分布图

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.T001:表1 济南市2012–2014年气象因素描述性分析结果

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.T001:表1 济南市2012–2014年气象因素描述性分析结果

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.T002:表2 济南市2012–2014年气象因素对手足口病发病短期效应负二项分布模型单因素分析结果

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.T002:表2 济南市2012–2014年气象因素对手足口病发病短期效应负二项分布模型单因素分析结果

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.T003:表3 济南市2012–2014年气象因素对手足口病发病短期效应负二项分布模型多因素分析结果

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.007.T003:表3 济南市2012–2014年气象因素对手足口病发病短期效应负二项分布模型多因素分析结果

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